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Canola prices were on the rise for the week ended June 11 as depleted stocks and dry weather gave the markets a lift.

Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade.

The outlook for canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange appears to be on a downward slide, said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba-based trader and farmer.

A lack of significant news has prevented canola prices at the Intercontinental Exchange to break out of its recent trading range to start 2025.

Spring planting in Manitoba registered at three per cent complete in the provincial agriculture department’s first crop report of 2025. Manitoba Agriculture released the report on April 29, noting planting progress was two points ahead of the five-year average.

ICE Futures canola contracts remained in a steady uptrend during the week ended April 16 despite the ongoing global tariff uncertainty, hitting their highest levels of the past year on a nearby weekly chart.

The National Farmers Union denounced the approval of the Bunge-Viterra merger in a statement released on Jan. 17. The NFU said the multi-billion dollar deal “effectively ends competition in Canada’s agricultural commodity sector,” as it creates the world’s largest agricultural commodity trader, and it will control 40 per cent of the Canadian grain market.

The path canola is to take as January turns to February has been marked by “extreme uncertainties,” explained broker Ken Ball of Ventum Financial in Winnipeg.

To Errol Andersson of Errol's Commodity Wire in Calgary, there's little doubt the Trump administration will press ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The ICE Futures canola market posted solid gains during the week ended March 26 to trade at its best levels in more than two weeks despite recently imposed Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal the looming threat of broad tariffs from the United States.