Forecast: Still a little early to think of spring

Issued Feb. 22, 2016, covering the period from Feb. 24, 2016 to Mar. 2, 2016

The start of my forecasts is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record. It doesn’t look like the current weather pattern we’ve been in for the last month or so is going to change any time soon. If you think winter has come to an early end and spring is ready to move in and replace it, think again.

After some very spring-like weather last week, we saw a brief return of cold air late in the weekend thanks to arctic high pressure. This high fortunately moved off to the east fairly quickly, allowing for mild air to move in during the first half of this week as we continue the see-saw battle between mild air to our west and cold air to our north and east.

By Wednesday of this week a strong area of low pressure will be developing south of the Great Lakes. While this low will not affect our region directly, it is going to have big impact on our temperatures over the weekend and into next week. This low will move northeast into northern Quebec and become very large by the end of the week. Behind this low we will see a secondary area of low pressure that will bring a chance of some flurries or light snow to our region on Friday. This low will continue to slide to the southeast over the weekend, helping to open the door for the main push of cold air.

Confidence in this part of the forecast is a little lower than usual, as the weather models are bouncing back and forth on just how cold it might get. As the trend has gone so far this winter, it looks like it won’t be as cold as the models first indicated. With this push of arctic high pressure we can expect plenty of sunshine, along with daytime highs around -15 C and overnight lows falling into the -26 C and possibly -30 C range if the conditions are right. Luckily, as we’ve seen and experienced all winter, this cold snap looks like it will only last three or four days before mild air begins moving back in by the middle of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -15 to -1 C; lows, -27 to -10 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.


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