Forecast: Spring is having trouble getting hold

Issued March 21, 2016 – Covering the period from March 23, 2016 to March 30, 2016

The expected changes in our weather pattern materialized last week with an extremely warm early-spring pattern being replaced by a more seasonal one. If the mild-cool pattern we’ve seen all winter persists, we can expect to see cooler conditions for the next couple of weeks before above-average temperatures move back in.

This forecast period will start off with a strong area of low pressure passing by well to our south. While this low will not bring us any precipitation it will help draw down cold air from the north as it works its way into northern Quebec by the end of the week. The weather models show a weak area of low pressure sliding across the border on Friday, bringing with it plenty of clouds along with a good chance of some light snow. It now only looks like we’ll see a couple of centimetres of snow from this system as it quickly moves to the east.

Over the weekend we can expect a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures continuing on the cool side and highs around the 0 C mark, with overnight lows in the -6 to -10 C range. Early next week another area of low pressure is forecast to track near the border, but arctic high pressure slowly sagging southward looks as if it will keep this system to our south.

Cool weather looks to continue right through to the end of the month and into early April as a large and deep upper-level trough of low pressure develops over central North America. At the surface, arctic high pressure will dominate, bringing mainly sunny skies along with cool conditions. Daytime highs under the strong spring sun won’t be too bad, but expect some cold overnight lows. It looks like winter just isn’t going to give up that easily!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -3 to +8 C; lows, -18 to -2 C

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.


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