Forecast: Return to more average weather conditions

Issued March 14, 2016 – Covering the period from March 16, 2016 to March 23, 2016

Last week’s forecast called for temperatures to be “at or above” the usual temperature range for this time of the year as warm air spread into the region. Well, temperatures were definitely “above” the usual temperature range, with a large number of locations breaking records for daytime highs and even some overnight lows. It does look like things will cool down during this forecast period as the weather pattern undergoes a change back to more seasonal conditions.

This forecast period will start off with a large area of slow-moving low pressure. The weather models have been having all sorts of problems trying to figure out just what this low will do. After what looks to be a wet, rainy start to the week we could see a fair bit of snow on Wednesday along with blustery northerly winds, or, in what looks to be the more likely scenario, we will see on-and-off flurries with only a couple of centimetres of accumulation. What the weather models aren’t having trouble with is bringing much cooler weather into our region later this week and into the weekend.

Once the mid-week low finally pulls off to the east late in the week, arctic high pressure will begin to build into this region. This first shot of arctic air will bring sunny skies on Friday and Saturday along with daytime highs in the -5 C range if there is snow cover, or around 0 C over snow-free areas.

For the first half of next week it looks like we will be in a rather muddled pattern, with several scattered weak areas of high and low pressure scattered. This will result in most days seeing a mix of sun and clouds, with only a slight chance of any precipitation. Daytime highs will be near the freezing mark with overnight lows around -10 C. The weather models point toward another stronger low bringing some measurable snow late next week, but confidence in this system is very low.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -8 to 6 C; lows, -21 to -4 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.


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