Forecast: Classic cold mid-winter weather

Forecast issued Jan. 11, 2016, covering the period from Jan. 13, 2016 to Jan. 20, 2016

It’s the middle of winter and, well, it feels like it. While it’s definitely been cold recently, if this ends up being our big shot of cold air for the winter, I think most of us can agree it wasn’t so bad!

It does look like the colder-than-average temperatures will continue for at least one more forecast period. Arctic high pressure will be the name of the game once again, as the weather models predict a large arctic high to begin building southward later this week. To start this forecast period we’ll see a large but weak area of low pressure slide from the northwest to the southeast, bringing with it some clouds, a few flurries and slightly warmer temperatures. The arctic high will begin to push its way into our region Friday, resulting in steady or even dropping temperatures.

By the weekend the high will have dropped southward, placing the centre of the high somewhere around southern Manitoba or Saskatchewan by Sunday or Monday. This is when we’ll see, or rather feel, the coldest air from this system, with overnight lows expected to be around -32 C.

The arctic high doesn’t look like it will move very quickly, with the weather models showing it sticking around for most of next week. Expect daytime highs to be around -20 C, with overnight lows around -30 C.

Further ahead, it looks like warmer weather will try to build to our west, but just how far east it will make it is still up in the air. The models show a large storm system moving in off of the West Coast and this will help to pump warmer air northward ahead of it. The big question is, just how far of an inroad can this warm air make against the arctic high? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -23 to -6 C; lows, -33 to -15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.


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