Farm Business Communications, 2/26/2008
"Average" weather predicted for Prairies
Winnipeg (Resource News International) -- Early indications point toward average weather conditions across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Midwest this summer, according to a meteorologist at the Canadian Wheat Board's (CWB) annual GrainWorld conference here Tuesday.
Pacific Ocean surface water temperatures along the equator are currently at their fifth-coolest levels of the past 50 years, indicating a strong La Nina weather pattern, said Mike Tannura of Chicago-based farm forecasting service T-Storm Weather.
However, looking at the historical data, that La Nina pattern should weaken by the summer and ocean temperatures will return to average levels, he said.
While there is not a strong correlation between winter weather conditions and what happens during the North American growing season, Tannura noted that U.S. corn and soybean yields are typically average, to slightly below average, in summers following a La Nina.
Droughts are rare following a La Nina, he added, as they typically occur when conditions shift from an El Nino to a La Nina.
Worldwide, Tannura didn't see any major weather-related issues on the horizon. Current forecasts would see the jet stream moving across the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Midwest during the summer months, increasing the chances of thunderstorms, he said.
In Australia, eastern areas of the country should continue to see much needed moisture, said Tannura. However, western regions could use some more rainfall.
Tannura said there were no real weather problems in Russia or in Europe, except for Spain which is currently experiencing a drought.
While he thought conditions would be favourable for growing wheat across most wheat-growing regions of the world, Tannura pointed out that there are many variables that will cause the forecasts to change.
While there are dozens of computer models, each with their own prediction for the future, the one thing to keep in mind is that "they'll all be different and they'll all be wrong," he said.
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